Global Markets & Economic Outlook
Published Monday, February 23, 2026 — A comprehensive market analysis for business readers from Ahmad Xpress News.
As global financial markets opened on Monday, February 23, 2026, investors were digesting a mix of risk-off headlines from the weekend alongside persistent optimism around equity inflows and corporate earnings. Equity benchmarks across the United States and Europe showed mixed but resilient performance, while Asian markets exhibited divergence amid weak Chinese trade data and stronger regional sentiment. Commodity prices also reflected contrasting forces — with precious metals rallying on safe-haven demand and oil tracking geopolitical risk factors.
This analysis examines movements in global stock markets, central bank developments, commodity price trends, and macroeconomic signals influencing investor sentiment as markets transitioned from weekend narratives into Monday’s trade.
Global Stock Markets: Weekly Snapshot and Monday Opening
United States
Major U.S. equity indices showed a positive bias heading into Monday’s open, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all posting solid gains in the previous week. According to early market data, the S&P 500 stood near 6,909 points, the Dow at approximately 49,625 and the Nasdaq around 22,886, signaling a rebound from recent volatility seen in tech and cyclical sectors. On Monday morning, futures indicated slight weakness, with modest downward movement in the Dow Jones futures following an unexpected increase in U.S. tariffs announced late Sunday night.0
The divergence between strong weekly performance and cautious Monday sentiment reflects ongoing investor recalibration in the aftermath of geopolitical news and tariff escalations that could affect global supply chains and corporate margins. Market watchers are particularly focused on heavy-weight tech earnings this week, especially from Nvidia, which could set the tone for broader risk appetite.1
Europe
European equities entered the new trading week on a resilient footing. The pan-European STOXX 600 index closed at a record high last week, propelled by better-than-expected corporate earnings and strong performances from defence and banking sectors. Geopolitical tensions, including stalled peace talks in Eastern Europe, contributed to sector rotation with increased activity in defence stocks.2
Funds tracking European equities saw robust inflows, driven by demand for diversification away from expensive U.S. markets and stronger factory orders in Germany. This broad interest in European assets suggests global investors are seeking value beyond mega-cap U.S. technology stocks.3
Asia-Pacific
Asian markets demonstrated a mixed picture. Tokyo's Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi registered modest gains, while the Hang Seng and Chinese mainland indices lagged, reflecting renewed risk aversion around slowing Chinese economic data. Markets in Hong Kong were down alongside weak Shanghai and Shenzhen trading sentiment.4
Investors in the region continue to balance optimism from U.S. and European inflows against domestic concerns — including corporate earnings divergences, regulatory pressures, and slowing export growth — particularly in mainland China. South Asian markets showed resilience, benefitting from regional inflows, stable macro data, and relative attractive valuations compared to peers.
Central Bank Developments and Monetary Policy Signals
Monetary policy expectations remain central to market pricing. In the United States, investors are pricing potential interest rate cuts later this year following softer inflation readings, with inflation holding near 2.4% in January — below peak levels seen in prior months. This has strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve easing in the latter half of 2026, which contributed to broader equity inflows.5
Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller’s scheduled remarks Monday are among the key events that traders are monitoring for fresh insights into rate outlook and economic conditions. Markets will pay close attention to any signals about the policy path and the Fed’s tolerance for inflation deviations amidst mixed labour and output data.6
In Europe, the potential early departure of the European Central Bank President has stirred discussion around continuity of monetary policy. Although details remain speculative, analysts suggest a leadership change could bring stability, particularly if accommodative policies are maintained to support growth amid uneven inflation progress.7
Elsewhere, the Reserve Bank of Australia has highlighted concerns about excessive risk taking and over-optimistic investor behaviour. Surveys show that investors are heavily overweight equities and commodities with underweight exposure to bonds and cash — a dynamic that could amplify volatility if negative shocks materialize.8
Commodity Price Trends: Energy, Metals, and Safe Havens
Commodity markets reflected a bifurcated trend. Oil prices remained somewhat pressured as demand signals softened in some regions, while geopolitical risk and supply dynamics kept a floor under prices. Natural gas futures saw modest gains driven by winter heating demand and supply concerns, while Brent and WTI crude hovered near their respective ranges.9
Precious metals surged, with gold and silver posting appreciable gains as investors sought safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainty and tariff impacts. Higher gold prices also mirror inflows into global bond funds, indicating a shift into traditionally defensive instruments amid tightening financial conditions.10
Base metals and industrial commodities showed mixed performance. Metals such as platinum and palladium enjoyed strong weekly gains, buoyed by demand from automotive and industrial sectors, while some base metals oscillated with currency moves and Chinese demand expectations.11
Investor Sentiment & The Macro Backdrop
Investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic. Global equity funds attracted the largest inflows in five weeks, led by European and U.S. markets, as concerns around concentrated tech risk softened and rotation into cyclical and defensive sectors increased. Emerging market funds also saw notable inflows, reflecting a broadening interest in higher-beta assets.12
Despite these flows, the elevated risk appetite flagged by central bankers underscores potential vulnerabilities. High equity exposures, compressed risk premiums, and underweight positions in bonds and cash suggest markets may be underpricing potential downturn scenarios — particularly if macro data weakens or geopolitical risks sharpen further.13
Geopolitical tensions remain a key macro risk factor. From U.S. tariff hikes to strained diplomacy in Europe and the Middle East, policy shifts continue to influence market behaviour and capital allocation decisions. Traders and fund managers are recalibrating positions on both fundamentals and risk narratives as they navigate this complex landscape.
Outlook for the Week Ahead
Looking ahead, markets will remain focused on earnings announcements, policy commentary from key central bankers, and macroeconomic data releases, including manufacturing orders and regional activity indices. The interplay of monetary policy expectations, corporate performance, and geopolitical developments is likely to define market direction in the coming sessions.
Investors are reminded to monitor volatility indicators and diversify exposures in light of shifting sentiment and risk conditions. Strong equity inflows provide support, but underlying fragilities — including stretched valuations and macro uncertainties — warrant disciplined risk management.
— End of Report
Published by Ahmad Xpress News
